Instructor: Professor John Richardson

Office Hours: Wednesdays: 8.15-10:15 PM

Fridays: 10:00 AM - 12:00 Noon ; 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM

Teaching Assistants: Ann Provencher (propeopledc@aol.com)

Anton Winder (Wyndr@usa.net)

(Consultations during office hours are scheduled by appointment. You will find sign up sheets posted outside the International Development Office for the entire semester. You may sign up or call the International Development Program Office Manager for an appointment at 202 885 1657 and 202 885 1660. When you do sign up, please be sure to leave your phone number so that you can be called if a conflict or emergency arises. Occasionally, the time scheduled for Friday office hours may be interrupted by a meeting or other event. Information about such conflicts will be posted as soon as it is available. If you have signed up and left your phone number, you will be called.)

Office: Hurst Hall 204D

Phone : Office Phone: 202-885-1487; Home Phone: 703 527 5497

Email & Fax : jrich@american.edu ; 703-527-8970

(Feel free to call me at home if you need to, but don’t call after 7:00 PM unless it is an emergency.)

Class Meetings: 5:30-7:50

1. Joseph F. Healey. Statistics: A Tool for Social Research. Belmont, California: Wadsworth. Fifth Edition. 1999.
2. World Bank. World Development report, 1997. Oxford, NY: Oxford University Press. 1997.
3. UNDP. Human Development Report, 1995. Oxford, NY: Oxford University Press. 1995.

This course is designed to strengthen research-methods proficiency that will enhance students’ skills and marketability as International Development professionals. Using material from the current discourse in International Development, the course incorporates both basic quantitative methods and analytic research techniques.

The course will consists of several modules, closely connected to each other. Its main goal course is to give International Development students necessary skills to define research problems, to operationalize them and to use different types of quantitative techniques to describe and analyze the numerical data they may use in their research. Statistics involve the collection, display, analysis and interpretation of numerical information. The course progresses from elementary components of descriptive statistics to using inferential statistics, hypotheses testing and to understanding the use of simple modeling techniques. At every stage we will be using material related to International Development issues. Students will be encouraged to explore new areas of scholarship and activity in International Development for their group and individual assignments.

You will be expected to use spreadsheets and, subsequently, the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for many of the homework assignments and for your research papers. For further discussion of this, see the section on "Computer Skills" below.

Some course materials will be distributed in the traditional manner and all will be available via the Blackboard technology on the World Wide Web. Accessing the course web site will be the subject of a separate handout. As with any new technology, be patient with it and with yourself as you are learning. Don’t hesitate to seek help from our teaching assistants, from the Social Science Computing Lab and from me if you are having problems.

You will be divided into groups and will be expected to use group members as resources throughout the semester. Group members are expected to meet outside class time to discuss course-related assignments, exercises and group presentations in class. Periodically, the instructor will meet with different groups during office hours. Organize and use your group as a "support group." It will can make a real difference.

As this is a graduate level course, you are expected to share the responsibility for contributing to the learning experience within the classroom. You are expected to attend classes regularly and to complete all the assignments. If you miss classes you will get behind and find it difficult to catch up. I do understand, however, that many of you work and that unanticipated demands of the workplace can sometimes intrude, unavoidably. If you are not progressing satisfactorily, and have missed more than two classes (without a valid excuse) do not expect to fill in the gaps with remedial assistance. On the other hand, virtually unbounded remedial assistance will be provided to students who are investing a total commitment in succeeding, but may be encountering some obstacles in doing so. So that the instructor have accurate information about class participation, a sign up sheet will be distributed at the beginning of each class session.

A reading schedule has been provided. Handout material will be distributed in class periodically. Additional materials will be posted on our Blackboard site. You will be notified by E-mail of new postings. All assignments should be completed and handed in on the date specified. Late submissions will be downgraded one point from the numerical grade for every day late ( for example from 84% to 83%), unless a valid excuse has been offered and accepted by the instructor. If you do need an extension, please request it by electronic mail (not by telephone) at least a day in advance. Please make an extra copy of all assignments submitted for grading.

Homework exercises on different quantitative methods discussed during class sessions are a regular feature of this course. Problems will be drawn from you text, however you will also be encouraged, to do additional self-defined problems, drawing on data sources that interest you. There will be no numerical grades given, but each paper will receive a check (1.5 points) a check plus (2.0 points) or a check minus (1 point). To qualify for a check plus, completion of an additional problem drawing on a data source not in the text, will be required. Grades will be given by ranking the aggregate point totals for all class members, scaling the ranked values and assigning letter grades based on the scalar values. Normally, a short amount of time will be given to reviewing homework problems in class. Late homework will be accepted, with a penalty of .25, if it is submitted by Monday evenings, prior to 7:45 PM. There will be a folder outside of my office for late homeworks.

You are encouraged to collaborate with another student on your homework assignments, research designs and research papers. Contributors to co-authored assignments and papers will both receive the same grade. With special permission, a group of as many as three students may collaborate on the research design and research paper assignments.

No class time will be allocated for computer-based instruction on spreadsheets and statistical packages, you will be expected to familiarize yourselves with these technologies on your own time. You are also expected to have access to and be reasonably proficient in using the World Wide Web. If there is interest , we may arrange one or more tutorial sessions on SPSS or the Web in the Social Science Computing Laboratory, on the second floor of Hurst Hall. The course teaching assistants, Ann Provencher and Anton Winder, are also knowledgeable and will be willing to arrange consultations and tutorials.

You may use a spreadsheet or SPSS to do your homework as soon as you are able to do so. Beginning with the homework assignment for week 5 (bivariate correlation/regression and rank order correlation) you MUST use at least spreadsheet technology to do your homework. Beginning with the homework assignments for Part III you MUST use SPSS for problems where that is appropriate and use spreadsheet technology, otherwise.

Numerical grades will be assigned to all graded work. Letter grades will be assigned only at the end of the semester. Correspondence between numerical and letter grades is as follows:

Calculation of your final grade will be based on the following weights:

Mid-term Examination: 10%

Homework Assignments: 30%

Research Design: 10 %

Final Research Paper: 25%

Final Exam: 25%

1. Course overview and organization. The "real world" of quantitative analysis. (8/30)

This session will include presentations by and discussions with one or more International Development Program students who have taken the course and who use quantitative methods professionally.

DISTRIBUTE: Syllabus; student information sheets; information sheet for class networking; format for Session 3 group discussions.

2. International development research: issues processes and problems. Problem definition; conceptualization, operationalization and index number construction; scales of measurement ; measures of central tendency and dispersion. Introduction to Blackboard. (9/6)

3. The normal curve and standard scores. Group presentations on the HDR 1995 and WBWDR 1997. (9/13)

4. Describing relationships between variables. Simple measures of association. (9/20)

PLANNING AHEAD: Your research design and final research paper assignments will be introduced in this session. Design of your research should first be discussed in your group. Then, by October 11 each group should arrange an appointment me to discuss your research. We will have a research "coaching session" on October 11.

READING: Healy, Chapters 13 & 14.

DISTRIBUTE: Handout on research design. We will discuss this on October 11.

DUE: Homework on measures of central tendency and dispersion and on standard scores.

5. Bivariate correlation/regression and rank order correlation. (9/27)

READING: Healy, Chapter 15 & 16.

DUE: Homework on simple measures of association.

6. Partial Correlation and Multiple correlation and regression. (10/4)

READING: Healy, Chapter 17 & 18. In Chapter 17, focus primarily on the conceptualization of causal relationships, rather than the computational procedures. Do give attention to the computational procedures in Chapter 18, however.

DUE: Homework on bivariate correlation/regression and rank order correlation. You must use spreadsheet technology for this assignment.

7. The process of research and different methodologies, including the use and abuse of statistical methods in research. Discussion of your research projects. Review for mid-term examination. (10/11)

Please be prepared to briefly describe the research question/problem that you are proposing to investigate.

READING: Wei Song, Foreign Direct Investment in China.; Brad Hamrlik, Health and Development. These two research papers received grades of "A" in last fall’s class. (Blackboard Site). Review the HDR1995 and WBWDR1997 and identify one research problem in each. Think about the research design that was used to investigate the problem.

HANDOUT: Last year’s mid-term examination.

DUE: Homework on multiple correlation and regression.

8. Mid-term examination (5:30-8:00) – (10/18)

Part III. Sampling, Inferential Statistics and Systems Analysis

9. Introduction to inferential statistics. Sampling. Estimating a population mean. Standard error of the mean and confidence intervals. Review of mid-term examination. (10/25)

READING: Healy, Chapters 6 & 7.

DUE: Research design for final paper.

DISTRIBUTE: Handout on sampling exercise.

10. Sampling (presentation by Professor Samarasinghe). (11/1)

READING: Earl Babbie, Survey Research Methods (Wadsworth, 1990), Chapters 6 and 7. Floyd J. Fowler, Survey Research Methods (Sage, 1993), Chapters 4 and 6. (Bender Library Reserve)

11. Chi square ( c ² ) and other non parametric measures of association. READING: Healy, Chapters 8, 9, 12. (11/8)

DUE: Results from sampling exercise.

12. Analysis of variance. Tests of significance for ordinal and ratio-interval scale data. (11/15)

READING: Healy, Chapters 11, 12. Par. 16.7.

HANDOUTS: Last year’s final examination.

DUE: Homework on chi square and other non parametric measures of association.

Thanksgiving Recess

13. Applied systems analysis (presentation by Professor Richardson) . (11/29)

READING: Donella Meadows, et. al., Groping in the Dark: the First Decade of Global Modeling (1982), pp. vii-xi, 96-106 and 269-291. Nancy Roberts, et. al., Introduction to Computer Simulation: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach (1983; 1994), pp. 3-56 ; 68-86. Pay particular attention to the "Tragedy of the Sahel" exercise on pp. 68-86. (The above will be available in the International Development Office). Brad J. Hamrlik and Traci L. Fenton, The Asian Financial Crisis: A Dynamic Model of the Effects of Globalization on Thailand. (BLACKBOARD)

DUE: Homework on analysis of variance.

14. Review of course. (12/6)