SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL SERVICE

SPRING SEMESTER, 2000. SIS MONDAYS 5:30 -7:50.

TOPICS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: THE SYSTEMS APPROACH (SIS 596.05)

COURSE OBJECTIVES

This course provides an opportunity to learn how systems analysis theory and techniques can be rigorously applied to the subject matter of international affairs and development. System Dynamics, a systems analysis philosophy and methodology originated by Professor J.W. Forrester at MIT, will be emphasized. Class members will be expected to:
 

- grasp the essentials of the system dynamics approach
- develop facility with systems analysis/computer simulation modeling techniques
- apply those techniques to extending previously developed models
- develop a comprehensive research design for an original systems modeling project
- formulate, document and test a preliminary computer simulation model based upon that research design

Topics in International Relations: Systems Analysis meets the requirements for a "second level" methodology course for MA, MAID and MSDM students in the School of International Service. It should also be of value to students majoring in Economics, History, Government, Public Administration, and Business Administration. Graduate students are expected to have completed 33.600 or the equivalent prior to enrolling in the course. Advanced undergraduate students are expected to have completed 33.307 or the equivalent prior to enrolling. Please consult the instructor before registering if you do not meet these prerequisites.

Name: John Richardson

Office: Hurst Hall Room 204D

Office phone: (202) 885-1694

Home phone: (703) 527-5497

Fax: (703) 527-8970 (at home)

Email: JRICH@EROLS.COM

If you need to speak with me by telephone and can not reach me at the University, you should feel comfortable about calling me at home. Your message will be received by my voice mail if I am not available. I also check my University voice mail regularly, even when I am working at home. Please do not call me at home after 8:00 PM, however.

The Basic Text - Available at the campus store

Stella 5.11. Distributed by High Performance Systems.

Frequently assigned books on reserve

FORMAL COURSE REQUIREMENTS AND GRADING

The principal work of the course will be two modeling exercises and an original modeling project. There will also be one additional homework assignment, drawn from the Roberts volume, which is intended to give you practice in causal loop diagramming and designing modeling projects.

The first modeling exercise, a policy-oriented simulation of predator-prey relations in the Kaibab Plateau, gives you practice in developing and running a system dynamics model through a carefully structured sequence of steps. The second exercise gives you practice in replicating and experimenting with a previously developed model. You may use one of the models presented in the Roberts volume or another "classic" system dynamics model in an area of international relations, environmental policy, philosophy, business, or other area that interests you.

The modeling project will be will be an original piece of modeling oriented research on a topic of your choice. You will be asked to define a research problem and, drawing on relevant literature, to represent it as a reference mode (graph of behavior over time) and causal loop diagram. These representations will be used to develop a simulation model and do, at a minimum, a preliminary analysis of model runs.

The replication-experimentation exercise and modeling project will be described in separate handouts.

Factors comprising your final grade in the course will be weighted as follows.

Assignment	Weight
Homework	5
Kaibab Exercise	20
Replication Experimentation Exercise	25
Original Modeling Project	40
Class Participation (including oral presentations)	10

Each assignment will be given a numerical grade. For the purpose of this course, the relationship between numerical and letter grades will be as follows:
 

A	95-100	C+	73-76
A-	90-94	C	66-72
B+	86-89	C-	63-66
B	81-85	D	57-62
B-	77-80	F	0-56

Meeting deadlines: Meeting deadlines is always somewhat problematic when doing modeling work. Both difficult-to-diagnose technical errors and lack of a needed creative breakthrough can create problems. On the other hand, this is a professionally oriented course and in professional work, deadlines are treated seriously, irrespective of extenuating circumstances. Taking these two considerations into account, I have devised, with the assistance of previous classes, a system of incentives and penalties related to timely submission of assigned work that has worked well. The system's goal is to strike a reasonable balance between flexibility and equity. Please do not ask for extensions or exceptions. The details of this system follow:

1. Course introduction: About system dynamics; stages in the modeling process; defining problems as reference modes (Jan 24)
2. Reading and developing causal-loop diagrams (Jan 31)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reading: Roberts, Chapters 1-4. Pay particular attention to Example III ("The Tragedy of the Sahel") on pp. 68, ff. It is not necessary to study every example. Rather, you should skim over most and try to gain a deep understanding of those that particularly interest you. Electronic Oracle, pp. 19-41; 75-85; 93-95. In this reading your goal, primarily, should be to learn what you can about problem definition and put that knowledge to use in your own preliminary project proposal.

Due: Preliminary project proposal (a brief one paragraph description of your project). Exercise 15 (Population Growth) in Roberts, pp. 74. Collaboration on your homework and project proposals is strongly encouraged.

3. Introduction to the STELLA software and to dynamic modeling: Model building blocks and tools (Feb 7)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reading: Technical Documentation, Chapter 1 (Overview), Chapter 4 (Building Blocks) and Chapter 5 (Tools). Feel free to skim over Chapters 2 (Controls) and 3 (Menus) and to experiment with the software if you wish, however this is not required.

Task: Go to the course BLACKBOARD Web site and download the HPS demonstration models that are posted there: Plague, Water Pollution, Immigration Policy and Drug Therapy. By the end of the semester, you will be building models like these. Experiment with one or more of the models that interest you. Be sure to examine and try to understand the model structure. Call me at once if you have any problems downloading. We will be discussing the Immigration and Water Pollution Models in Class.

4. Representing causal loop structures using STELLA (Feb 14)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Due: (A) Second iteration of your project proposals. This should include a written statement of one page or less, which is also summarized on a viewgraph or power point slide for presentation to the class. (B) STELLA diagrams of the Tragedy of the Sahel and of Exercise 15 in Roberts, which you completed for assignment 2. The minimal requirement for these diagrams is the model-level structure. Including a mapping level structure would also be desirable. Your diagrams should be submitted on a disk, which you should bring to class. Please check carefully for viruses.
 
 

5. The relationship between structure and behavior; reviewing the "state of knowledge" for modeling projects (Feb 21)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reading: Roberts, Chapters 5-7. D.H. Meadows, et. al., Beyond the Limits, Chapter 1 (Overshoot). State of knowledge review section of the Richardson and Klabbers Lake Erie Eutrophication policy analysis model [PDF file, on BLACKBOARD Site]. State of knowledge review section for the population sector of the World3 model in Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World.

Due: (A) Write out the answers to excercises 3,4 and 5 (Population history of the Boston Area) in Chapter 6. Use STELLA to develop a model structure diagram of the system described in the "Boston" example. (B) Write out the answers to exercise 4 in Chapter 7. As you do these exercises, you should be thinking about our own project’s reference modes and model structure diagrams.

6. First project coaching session – Problem defintion, reference mode, model structure diagram, dynamic hypothesis (Feb 26)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Task: Be prepared to give a 15 minute presentation on your project in order to get feed back from me and class members.

7. Introduction to simulation and to the Kaibab plateau exercise; the relationship between STELLA and DYNAMO; the Kaibab exercise, "first model" (Mar 6)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Due: First project reports. These must be in "hard copy." Reports should include problem statement, reference mode, a brief review of the relevant state of knowledge and a model structure diagram, supported by appropriate documentation. Diagrams should be inserted in the text of your report.

Reading: Technical Documentation, Chapter 6; Roberts, Chapters 13-15. Skim Chapter 18.

SPRING BREAK

8. Developing simulation proficiency – table look-up functions, multipliers and normals; material and information delays: the Kaibab exercise, "second model;" an urban growth and migration model (Mar 20)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reading: Roberts, Chapters 16-17. Technical Manual, discussion of "Conveyors" in Chapter 4 and "Delay" and "Smooth" functions in Chapter 7.

9. Understanding "Builtins" by creating simple experimental models: The Demtrans (demographic transition) model as an illustration; Introduction to the replication and extension project (Mar 27)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Due: Kaibab Plateau, "third model" and "fourth model", including relevant exercises (see separate handout).

Reading: Technical Documentation, Chapter 7.

10. Initialization and parameter estimation; documentation standards: The population sector of the World3 model (Apr 3)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reading: Meadows, et. al., Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, pages to be assigned later. Beyond the Limits, pp. 237-253 (On reserve and available as a PDF file)

Task: Come to a decision about the topic for your replication extension project, if you have not already done so.

11. Second project coaching session – focusing on model structure diagram and preliminary equations (Apr 10)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Task: Come to class prepared to make oral progress reports on your projects, to date, supplemented by appropriate presentation aids.

12. Developing confidence in system dynamics models (Apr 17)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reading: Excerpt from J.W. Forrester and Peter Senge, Developing Confidence in System Dynamics Models (PDF file). The Electronic Oracle, Chapter 15. ("Implementation: Changing the World.")

13. Oral reports on replication and extension projects (Apr 24)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Due: Replication and extension project reports.

14. Testing and experimenting with models; making policy recommendations (May 1)

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reading: Beyond the Limits, Chapters 6 ("Technology, Markets and Overshoot") and 7 ("Transition to a Sustainable Society").

15. Oral reports on final projects (May 8 – Final examination date)